By Stephanie Armour and Kristina Peterson
The Senate Republican health-care overhaul would result in 22
million more people uninsured and cut the cumulative federal
deficit by $321 billion in the next decade compared with the
current Affordable Care Act, according to an estimate released
Monday by the Congressional Budget Office.
That assessment comes as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
(R., Ky.) is engaged in last-minute negotiations with more than a
half-dozen GOP lawmakers wavering in their support of the bill.
Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine) immediately came out against the
bill, citing the CBO report and raising the specter that the
monthslong push to overhaul health care could collapse on a
procedural vote.
GOP leaders have said the Senate will vote this week on the
bill. They can lose no more than two Republican senators on either
the "motion to proceed" to debate on the bill, which could come as
early as Tuesday, or on the bill itself, scheduled for a vote later
in the week. None of the 48 Senate Democrats is expected to vote in
favor of the bill.
Six GOP senators are now opposed to the bill and at least three
have said they would block it on the procedural vote.
The bill's effect on consumers would vary widely, the CBO found.
Many people would see lower premiums, partly because their plans
would cover fewer benefits. But for lower-income consumers or those
with special needs, medical costs could be significantly
higher.
Republicans emphasized the CBO's finding that after rising for a
time, average premiums would go down after 2020.
"Our plan will help address Obamacare's ballooning costs for
consumers by lowering premiums over time and cutting taxes, and
today's estimate confirms that," said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas,
the second-ranking Senate Republican.
The White House said in a statement: "The CBO has consistently
proven it cannot accurately predict how healthcare legislation will
impact insurance coverage. This history of inaccuracy, as
demonstrated by its flawed report on coverage, premiums, and
predicted deficit arising out of Obamacare, reminds us that its
analysis must not be trusted blindly."
Democrats and their allies pounced on the analysis to say the
Senate bill would gut Medicaid and give tax breaks to the wealthy.
"Today's report confirms what doctors, patient advocates, Democrats
and Republicans have been saying for weeks: Trumpcare will lead to
higher costs for less care, and will lead to tens of millions of
Americans left without health insurance," said Senate Minority
Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.).
Senate leaders have been working for weeks in closed-door
sessions to draft a bill knocking down key parts of the ACA and
replacing it with a new system of tax credits and cuts to Medicaid.
If the bill passes this week, it is possible the House could vote
on health-overhaul legislation before Congress takes a recess in
August.
Four conservative Republicans -- Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky,
Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Mike Lee of Utah and Ted Cruz of Texas --
said shortly after the bill's release they opposed it in its
current form. A centrist, Sen. Dean Heller (R., Nev.), announced
his opposition the following day.
Ms. Collins said in a trio of tweets Monday evening that while
she wanted to fix the ACA, the "CBO analysis shows Senate bill
won't do it," citing the cuts to Medicaid funding and how that
could restrict health-care access in rural areas. "Senate bill
doesn't fix ACA problems for rural Maine," she said.
Mr. McConnell's most immediate challenge is securing the 50
votes needed to clear a procedural hurdle expected Tuesday or
Wednesday. Mr. Paul and Ms. Collins have said they will vote
against it, and Mr. Johnson has said he couldn't vote to advance
the bill without further information.
If Mr. McConnell can't persuade at least one of those
Republicans to change their mind, the months-long push to overhaul
the ACA would collapse on the procedural vote.
Lawmakers will have several days to digest the CBO analysis, if
the vote occurs this week as planned. When the CBO reported that
the House version of the bill would result in 23 million fewer
insured Americans in 2026 than the ACA, it delivered a jolt that
undermined the bill's support, though House Republican leaders were
able to muster enough support to narrowly pass it.
It is unclear if the CBO score will have a similar effect in the
Senate. Some GOP centrists had expressed concerns that the bill
would leave too many people uninsured.
The increase in the uninsured would be disproportionately larger
among older people with lower income, particularly people between
50 and 64 years old, according to the CBO.
Under the Senate bill, an estimated 49 million people would be
uninsured by 2026 compared with 28 million who would lack care
under the ACA, according to the analysis by CBO and the Joint
Committee on Taxation. That's primarily because of sizable cuts to
the Medicaid program, the end of a penalty for not having coverage,
and substantially smaller subsidies to help low-income people
purchase insurance. The number of Medicaid enrollees under 65 would
fall by about 16% by 2026 relative to current law (or 15 million
fewer people).
The Senate bill would phase out enhanced federal funding by 2024
to the 31 states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA, and it would
alter the program's overall funding in a way that would sharply
limit the money received by the states.
Federal spending on Medicaid would be reduced by $772 billion
over 10 years under the Senate bill, compared with $834 billion
under the House bill, according to the CBO.
States could use waivers to roll back the ACA's requirements
that insurers cover certain benefits, such as maternity care and
mental-health services, and could use waivers to override the ACA's
limits on out-of-pocket and lifetime medical costs.
The CBO estimated that about half the country's population would
live in states that choose to use waivers that give insurers leeway
to cover fewer services required by the ACA. Residents of those
states who sought benefits that insurers no longer must cover would
face "substantial increases" in their costs, the CBO said.
Republicans say the legislation is needed because the individual
insurance markets under the ACA are struggling. About 47 counties
in the U.S., or about 34,000 people, are at risk of having no
insurer to pick from on the exchanges next year, according to an
analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
On Monday, Anthem Inc. said it believes that Senate bill will
bolster the individual market, an endorsement that comes as many
other insurers have suggested the legislation could undermine the
ACA marketplaces.
Anthem said it believed the bill "will markedly improve the
stability of the individual market and moderate premium increases"
because it allots billions to help stabilize the markets,
eliminates a tax on health insurance plans and works on "aligning
premium subsidies with premium costs."
The bill's reduction of the federal deficit by $321 billion
through 2026 is more than the House version, which the CBO
estimated would curb the deficit by $119 billion. Under Senate
procedural rules, the bill must have at least as much of a deficit
reduction at the legislation passed by the House. That leaves
Senate Republican leaders with about $200 billion they can add to
the bill to get more lawmakers to support the legislation and still
meet the same savings as the House version.
Mr. Trump met over the weekend with more than a half-dozen
Senators, the White House said.
The bill is widely expected to be tweaked before any vote this
week in an effort to woo reluctant Republican lawmakers into
supporting the legislation.
Republican leaders remained optimistic Monday that they could
iron out differences among GOP senators, including by adding
funding for opioid treatment that was being sought by several
centrist Republicans and a potential amendment from Sen. Ted Cruz
of Texas that would allow insurers to offer lower-priced plans that
offered fewer benefits under certain circumstances.
One possibility to secure the vote of Sen. Lisa Murkowski of
Alaska was an adjustment to the Medicaid funding formula for her
state, a senior White House official said, adding that Alaska's
uniquely high costs and large geography could justify such a move
in the face of criticisms that the bill included state-specific
"kickbacks."
--Natalie Andrews and Richard Rubin contributed to this
article.
Write to Stephanie Armour at stephanie.armour@wsj.com and
Kristina Peterson at kristina.peterson@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2017 20:16 ET (00:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.