SAO PAULO,
June 26, 2017
/PRNewswire/ --
Platts Survey of Analysts (1H June)
- Cane crush: 41.18 million metric tons
(mt)
- Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 127.13
kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
- Sugar production: 2,455 thousand metric tons
(mt)
- Total ethanol production: 1,573 million liters
(ltrs)
- Hydrous ethanol production: 881 million
ltrs
- Anhydrous ethanol production: 691.7 million
ltrs
- Sugar mix: 48.7%
- Ethanol mix: 51.3%
Sugar production in Brazil's key Center-South (CS) region in the
first half (1H) of June is expected to be nearly 2.45 million
metric tons (mt), up 104% on the year and up 40% from the second
half of May, an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed
Monday.
The forecast jump comes on the back of drier weather in 1H
that was more favorable to harvesting than in the comparison
periods. According to the analysts' estimates, an average of
nearly 1.4 days of sugar cane crushing were lost to rains in 1H
June, compared with roughly 6.5 days a year ago and 5.4 days in 2H
May.
To produce sugar, mills used 48.7% of the 41.18 million mt
of the cane crushed in 1H June, the survey showed. Such
compared with 40.73% of the 25.99 million mt of cane crushed during
the same period last year.
The balance of the cane, or 51.3%, was expected to have
been used to produce 1.57 billion liters of ethanol, up 46% from a
year ago. Hydrous is expected to have accounted for 56% and
anhydrous for the balance.
The full range of analyst expectations of the cane crush
spanned from 39 million mt to 44.8 million mt. The consensus for
cane's total recoverable sugar, or ATR, was 127.13 kg/mt in 1H
June, with a wider range of 123.2-132.3 kg/mt.
Even with a higher 1H June crush, total cane crushed to
date this season has lagged the same period a year ago. Taking into
account the average poll results for crushing, the accumulated
volume since the season began (April
1) through June 16 is expected
to be 9% lower than last year at 153 million mt. ATR for the
period was expected at 127.8 kg/mt, compared with 121.84 kg/mt a
year earlier.
However, cumulative sugar production was expected to be 1%
lower on a year-over-year basis, at 8.15 million mt, amid a higher
proportion of cane allocated to sugar so far this
season.
Platts Kingsman, the agricultural analysis unit of S&P
Global Platts, forecast the 1H June cane crush at 40.2 million
mt.
"Sugar production [will] set a new fortnightly record for
this season due to a high sugar mix level and good crushing
volumes," said Platts Kingsman analyst Claudiu
Covrig.
Sugar production is expected to be 2.68 million mt, while
ATR is expected to have reached 128 kg/mt of cane, according to
Covrig.
In Parana state, one of
the sugarcane producing regions in CS Brazil, the amount of cane
crushed in 1H June declined 29% on the year to 1.2 million mt,
according to local industry association Alcopar. Rains caused
halts in harvesting and hampered the crush. The ATR in the
state was 138.77 kg/mt of cane, up 13.57 kg/mt from 2H May and up
19.15 kg/mt from 1H June
2016.
ETHANOL SALES SEEN HIGHER THAN 2H MAY
The Platts Kingsman forecast for total sales of fuel and
industrial ethanol in the CS Brazil domestic market -- anhydrous
plus hydrous -- in 1H June at approximately 1.15 billion liters,
compared with 1.055 billion liters in 2H May and 1.05 billion
liters in 1H June 2016.
The expected rise in sales reflects higher hydrous demand
at the pump, as prices in the main consumer state Sao Paulo have been competitive. During the
June 1-22 period, hydrous prices in
the state averaged 68.2% of gasoline prices, compared with 69.5% in
May, data from the National Petroleum Agency showed. In
Mato Grosso, prices averaged 63%.
Prices in two other large states, Goias and Minas Gerais, had a
combined average of 71.5%.
Hydrous fuel, which is used in flex-fuel vehicles,
competes with gasoline at the pump and is competitive when its
price is at most 70% of gasoline prices due to its energy content.
Gasoline has 30% more energy content than hydrous. Anhydrous
ethanol is blended with gasoline under a 27% national mandate. Both
products are also used in
industry.
Industry association UNICA said Monday it would release
its official production figures just after its ethanol summit,
currently underway in Sao Paulo.
The summit runs through Tuesday.
CS Brazil Cane
Production Data – 1H June, 2017 (as of June
16)
|
|
|
Category
|
Unit
|
Survey
|
Platts
Kingsman
|
UNICA
(2016-17)
|
Year
over
Year (YOY)
|
var.
Vol. YOY
|
Cane crush
|
(million
mt)
|
41.18
|
40.20
|
25.99
|
58.5%
|
15.20
|
ATR
|
(kg/mt
cane)
|
127.13
|
128.00
|
119.26
|
6.6%
|
7.87
|
Sugar
output
|
(thousand
mt)
|
2,455
|
2,680
|
1,203
|
104.0%
|
1,251.55
|
Ethanol
total
|
(million
ltr)
|
1,573
|
1,545
|
1,077
|
46.0%
|
495.55
|
Hydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
881
|
866
|
640
|
37.7%
|
241.00
|
Anhydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
692
|
679
|
437
|
58.3%
|
254.73
|
Sugar Mix
|
(%)
|
48.70
|
48.70
|
40.73
|
|
|
Ethanol
Mix
|
(%)
|
51.30
|
51.30
|
59.27
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CS Brazil Cane
Production Data -- 2H May, 2017 (as of June 1)
|
|
|
Category
|
Unit
|
Survey
|
Platts
Kingsman
|
UNICA
|
|
|
Cane crush
|
(million
mt)
|
29.58
|
29.20
|
31.59
|
|
|
ATR
|
(kg/mt
cane)
|
123.92
|
128.50
|
122.83
|
|
|
Sugar
output
|
(thousand
mt)
|
1,592
|
1,662
|
1,754
|
|
|
Ethanol
total
|
(million
ltr)
|
1,142
|
1,177
|
1,203
|
|
|
Hydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
660
|
701
|
649
|
|
|
Anhydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
483
|
476
|
553
|
|
|
Sugar Mix
|
(%)
|
46.17
|
46.50
|
47.45
|
|
|
Ethanol
Mix
|
(%)
|
53.83
|
53.50
|
52.55
|
|
|
Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of
Analysts Results--Unica Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman, UNICA.
Year-on-year change compares Platts Survey against UNICA's figures
for 2016-17.
Visit the S&P Global Platts
website for more information on sugar and
biofuels.
Media Contact:
Global,
Americas, Asia: Kathleen Tanzy, + 1 917 331 4607,
kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com
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