ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale
value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including
fleet deliveries, will reach 1,529,500 units in May, up 0.3 percent
from a year ago and down on a selling day adjusted basis at -3.7
percent.
These figures imply a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR)
of 16.8 million units for May. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail
deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to be up 0.5
percent with 1,238,141, units and down on a selling adjusted basis
at -3.6 percent.
“Based on five consecutive months of year-over-year sales
declines, our revised estimate for full year sales in 2017 is now
17.2 million units, which still represents a robust and healthy
sales environment,” said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for
ALG.
“Automakers, particularly GM, continue to work through elevated
inventory levels with near record incentive spending. However, on a
month-over-month basis, automaker discounting is down and fleet mix
continues to decline, both signals that the industry is adapting to
lower overall sales volumes,” Lyman continued.
Incentive spending is expected to average an estimated $3,435
per automaker in May, up 9.5 percent from a year ago, and down 0.2
percent from April 2017.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at
97.7 this month, up from 97.0 in April which indicates continued
confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for
positive economic conditions include the April unemployment rate
which came in at 4.4 percent combined with a favorable average gas
price of $2.37 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for May:
- Registration mix is expected to be 81.0
percent retail sales and 19.0 percent fleet versus 80.8 percent
retail and 19.2 percent fleet last May.
- Total used auto sales, including
franchise and independent dealerships and private-party
transactions, may reach 3,227,957, down -5.4 percent from May
2016.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer
May 2017
Forecast
May 2016
% Change vs.
May 2016
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)
BMW 31,300
33,685 -7.1 % -10.8 %
Daimler 31,800
32,567 -2.4 % -6.3
% FCA 186,000
194,108 -4.2 %
-8.0 % Ford 235,000
234,748 0.1 %
-3.9 % GM 250,000
240,450 4.0 %
-0.2 % Honda 145,000
147,108 -1.4 %
-5.4 % Hyundai
70,000 71,006 -1.4 %
-5.4 % Kia
62,000 62,926 -1.5 %
-5.4 % Nissan
136,000 133,496
1.9 % -2.2 % Subaru
52,500 50,083
4.8 % 0.6 % Toyota
217,000 219,339
-1.1 % -5.0 % Volkswagen Group
55,800 52,291
6.7 % 2.4 %
Industry
1,529,500
1,524,987
0.3
%
-3.7
%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer
May 2017
Forecast
May 2016
April 2017 BMW
2.0 % 2.2 %
1.8 % Daimler
2.1 % 2.1 %
2.1 % FCA
12.2 % 12.7 %
12.4 % Ford
15.4 % 15.4 %
15.0 % GM
16.3 % 15.8 %
17.1 % Honda
9.5 % 9.6 %
9.7 % Hyundai
4.6 % 4.7 %
4.3 % Kia
4.1 % 4.1 %
3.7 % Nissan
8.9 % 8.8 %
8.6 % Subaru
3.4 % 3.3 %
3.7 % Toyota
14.2 % 14.4 %
14.2 % Volkswagen Group
3.6 % 3.4 %
3.6 %
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer
May 2017
Forecast
May 2016
YoY %
Change
YoY %
Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)
BMW 30,320
32,894 -7.8 % -11.5 %
Daimler 30,100
30,819 -2.3 % -6.2
% FCA 145,000
154,915 -6.4 %
-10.1 % Ford 155,000
153,895 0.7 %
-3.3 % GM 193,000
183,394 5.2 %
1.0
%
Honda 143,463
145,573 -1.4 %
-5.4 % Hyundai 48,985
47,653 2.8 %
-1.3 % Kia 47,415
46,313 2.4 %
-1.7 % Nissan 101,000
100,116 0.9 %
-3.2 % Subaru
47,859 45,314 5.6 %
1.4 % Toyota
195,178 197,369
-1.1 % -5.1 % Volkswagen Group
51,700 47,794
8.2 % 3.8 %
Industry
1,238,141
1,232,431
0.5
%
-3.6
%
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer
Incentive
per Unit
May 2017
Forecast
Incentive
per Unit
May 2016
Incentive
per Unit
Apr 2017
Incentive
per Unit
%
Change
vs. May
2016
Incentive
per Unit
%
Change
vs. Apr
2017
Total
Spending
May 2017
Forecast
BMW $ 4,550 $ 5,724
$ 4,424 -20.5 %
2.8 % $ 141,960,143 Daimler
$ 4,511 $ 4,737
$ 4,557 -4.8 %
-1.0 % $ 143,434,345 FCA
$ 4,250 $ 4,115 $
4,359 3.3 % -2.5 %
$ 781,985,668 Ford $ 4,090
$ 3,596 $ 4,114
13.7 % -0.6 %
$ 961,253,655 GM $ 4,255
$ 4,057 $ 4,238
4.9 % 0.4 % $
1,063,836,690 Honda $ 1,833
$ 1,756 $ 1,809
4.4 % 1.3 % $ 265,759,279
Hyundai $ 3,166 $ 2,104
$ 3,135 50.5 %
1.0 % $ 221,602,176 Kia
$ 3,240 $ 2,734
$ 3,247 18.5 %
-0.2 % $ 200,891,362 Nissan
$ 3,867 $ 3,242 $
3,903 19.3 % -0.9 %
$ 525,958,575 Subaru $
969 $ 610 $ 957
58.9 % 1.3 %
$ 50,896,461 Toyota $ 2,323
$ 2,176 $ 2,346
6.8 % -1.0 % $
504,187,371 Volkswagen Group $ 4,075
$ 3,605 $ 4,008
13.0 % 1.7 % $
226,630,331
Industry
$
3,435
$
3,138
$
3,443
9.5
%
-0.2
%
$
5,231,570,052
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of
industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the
company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive
residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By
analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual
value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients
with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting
and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a
wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
View source
version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20170526005104/en/
TrueCar, Inc.Veronica Cardenas,
424-258-2487VCardenas@truecar.compressinquiries@truecar.com
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