How GM Might Unlock a Tesla-Like Valuation--Heard on the Street
May 05 2017 - 7:08AM
Dow Jones News
By Stephen Wilmot
Tesla being worth more than Ford or--as of this week-- GM is the
most visible implication of the valuation gap between old car tech
and new car tech. But a bigger one for executive teams concerns
portfolio management: It has become harder to own both in the same
listed entity. As long as the gap remains, calls for GM to split
will grow only louder.
An example was set this week by component supplier Delphi
Automotive, which was itself spun out of GM in 1999. Delphi
announced Wednesday that it was splitting its engine-parts business
from its other divisions, which are focused on the kind of
electronics necessary to turn cars into self-driving mobile
devices. The shares jumped 11% as investors factored in a higher
stand-alone valuation for the "RemainCo," which doesn't face the
same questions around the transition to electric vehicles as the
"SpinCo."
The potential for GM to do something similar is on Wall Street's
radar. Chief Executive Mary Barra sounded more open to a spinoff
last week, when GM announced first-quarter numbers, than she did
three months earlier. "We continue to evaluate" the possibilities,
she said. Her comments hinted that Cruise Automation, a San
Francisco self-driving technology startup GM bought for $581
million last year, might provide a means to do so.
The problem GM faces is its rock-bottom valuation. Its shares
trade at 5.5 times prospective earnings, or roughly $5,000 for
every car it sold last year. Tesla's almost identical market value
is equivalent to about $500,000 a car, based on the annualized
first-quarter run-rate of deliveries.
Investors that buy GM stock are inclined to see investments in
electric and autonomous vehicles as a cost, while those that buy
Tesla stock focus on their potential. Spinning off a chunk of
Cruise Automation, together with GM's electric-vehicle projects and
perhaps its stake in ride hailing app Lyft, could attract
tech-hungry shareholders that would never buy into GM, giving it a
much cheaper source of equity capital to compete with Tesla. This
capital could also incentivize flighty Silicon Valley staff.
There are risks. A spinoff would incur transaction fees and
duplicate some costs, while bringing only minor commercial
advantages. It could therefore erode economic value even as it
engineered a higher valuation. If the car-tech bubble burst, it
would end up looking like an expensive, faddy mistake.
Still, as long as the costs can be contained, it makes sense for
GM to pursue the idea. Ms. Barra is under pressure to do something
about the company's valuation, not least from activist David
Einhorn, who is pushing the less convincing notion of creating two
GM share classes. Tesla's valuation partly reflects the extreme
scarcity of stocks offering pure-play exposure to the car
industry's technological transition. Intel's purchase of
self-driving tech leader Mobileye eliminated one of the few
alternatives.
By providing a new outlet for investor demand, a GM spinoff
might even come with the added bonus of knocking froth out of
Tesla's stock.
Write to Stephen Wilmot at stephen.wilmot@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 05, 2017 06:53 ET (10:53 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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