5 Things To Know About the New Round of Greek Bailout Talks
February 28 2017 - 11:01AM
Dow Jones News
By Nektaria Stamouli
Talks between Greece and its international creditors are due to
restart Tuesday after stalling for nearly three months. As
negotiations resume, here are some things to know.
Why Did the Negotiations Stall?
Although the International Monetary Fund didn't officially join
the up to the EUR85 billion ($90 billion) third bailout in 2015, it
wants Europe to commit to relieving Greece's debt after it
concluded that the country's debt burden was "highly
unsustainable."
But European lenders--led by Germany-- want Greece to stick to
the targets and enact additional austerity measure. They also
insist on a two-step sequence, in which Greece first signs up to
all the additional measures before Berlin and the IMF sit down and
discuss debt relief.
Why Is a deal so difficult?
After two failed bailouts in Greece, the IMF wants to protect
its credibility and is reluctant to give the green light to another
program that it doesn't believe it will succeed. Eurozone
governments are eager to avoid making concessions to Greece ahead
of crucial elections in Germany and elsewhere in the coming months.
Greece's left-wing government, already trailing in popularity, is
looking for a way to make fresh austerity digestible in a country
that is deeply weary of a new round of cuts.
What Was Decided On Feb. 20 Eurogroup?
Greece committed itself to additional austerity measures in the
form of pensions cuts and broadening the tax base after the program
ends in 2018, as well as labor reforms and the privatization of
state companies. Officials representing the creditors then headed
back to Athens to draw up the new austerity package.
The two sides will also form a package of growth-enhancing
countermeasures, which will mostly consist of tax cuts, which will
be implemented under the condition that the primary surplus targets
are met.
What Will Happen Next?
When the talks conclude and the mission chiefs reach a staff
level agreement, this would pave the way for debt relief talks to
kick off. The creditors will have to agree on how many years Greece
needs to maintain a 3.5% primary surplus and then specify the debt
relief measures in a way that would satisfy the IMF to rejoin the
program as a lender.
This is also important for the European Central Bank, which says
that the sustainability of Greece's debt must be addresses before
Greek bonds can become eligible for its quantitative-easing
program.
How Much Time Does Greece Have?
Although Greece doesn't urgently need bailout cash before its
next big debt repayments in July, another break down in talks would
delay the country's inclusion in the ECB's bond buying program,
which is considered a decisive step for Athens to be able to tap
the international markets. It could also derail the country's
economic growth, which according to Greece's and its creditors
estimates could accelerate at a pace of 2.7% of GDP in 2017. This
would decrease the chances of the country reaching the targets and
being able to implement the countermeasures and ease the economic
pain on Greece.
Ideally, Athens would like to reach a staff level agreement by
the Eurogroup on March 20. But the amount of work that remains to
be done means that deadline is unlikely to be met.
Write to Nektaria Stamouli at nektaria.stamouli@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 28, 2017 10:46 ET (15:46 GMT)
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