U.S. Dollar Weaker as Protectionist Talk Trumps Economic Stimulus
January 22 2017 - 9:35PM
Dow Jones News
By James Glynn
SYDNEY--The U.S. dollar weakened against a wide range of
currencies in Asia on Monday amid disappointment that U.S.
President Donald Trump's inauguration speech proved light on detail
over his plans for economic stimulus.
Mr. Trump spent more time on themes that might stoke trade
tensions, an outcome that could pose a threat to a recovery in
global economic growth, traders said.
"At the turn of the year, the U.S. dollar was priced for strong
growth and rising yields. Now the pendulum is swinging towards
trade wars and slower growth," said Sean Callow, currency
strategist at Westpac.
The dollar slumped against the yen, sliding to around Y113.75
from Y115.20 in late New York trading Friday. The euro rose to
$1.0730, its highest level since December. The Australian dollar
was trading around its highest levels since Nov. 11. The British
pound remained firm, having climbed 2.8% in the last five trading
days.
China guided the yuan stronger for the first time in three
sessions, moving its daily midpoint for onshore markets to
CNY6.8572 from CNY6.8693 on Friday.
At 0130 GMT, the WSJ Dollar Index, a measure of the U.S.
currency against 16 others, was down 0.26% at 91.33.
In a relatively brief inauguration speech, Trump spent a lot
more time on protectionist rhetoric than on the infrastructure
boost that has been vital to the U.S. dollar rally since election
day, Mr. Callow said.
"Trump's stated preference for a weaker dollar and his intense
focus on U.S. trade, clashes with the promised 4% growth rate that
would send yields and the U.S. dollar sharply higher," he said.
Mr. Trump is taking immediate steps to reorder U.S. economic
alliances in his first days in office, setting up meetings with
leaders from Mexico and Canada on North American affairs and
hosting U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May this Friday to lay the
groundwork for a trade pact with London.
Just two days after taking office, Mr. Trump said he would
follow through on plans to renegotiate the North American Free
Trade Agreement, the two-decade-old deal that binds the U.S.
economy to Canada and Mexico.
The U.S. dollar is likely to continue trading softer at the
start of the week "as the market unwinds expectations of an
immediate fiscal stimulus from the new U.S. administration," said
Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank.
U.S. Treasury yields are leading moves in the currency market.
"Caution is the theme for the week as the market will be very
susceptible to Trump's team policy announcements," Mr. Catril
added.
Even ahead of Mr. Trump's speech, investors had been dialing
back their bets on dollar strength, with leveraged funds cutting
their long-dollar positions by $2.1B to $26.7B in the week through
Tuesday, according to the latest CFTC data and ANZ research.
The faltering of initial post-election confidence over the U.S.
growth outlook has taken pressure off emerging market currencies
this month, traders said. But gains will be limited by the
confidence in the U.S. economic outlook being shown by the U.S.
Federal Reserve.
If the Fed follows through on its optimistic rhetoric by raising
rates by mid-year, then emerging market currencies could have the
worst of both worlds--a strong U.S. dollar driving capital
outflows, but the possibility of U.S. protectionism hampering Asian
exporters, analysts said.
-Saumya Vaishampayan contributed to this article.
Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2017 21:20 ET (02:20 GMT)
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