Oil Prices Rise After IEA Says OPEC Cuts on Track
January 19 2017 - 11:44AM
Dow Jones News
By Timothy Puko
Oil prices were ticking higher Thursday after the International
Energy Agency's monthly report suggested global oversupply is
easing.
The Paris-based IEA said that OPEC production was falling and
that inventories in big consumer countries have been draining.
Bulls highlighted this information in pushing for higher prices,
but the IEA warned that gains could be offset by the likely
expansion outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries, especially from U.S. shale oil production.
Light, sweet crude for February delivery recently gained 67
cents, or 1.3%, to $51.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. February options expire at Thursday's settlement and
futures expire at Friday's settlement. The March contract, which
has become the most actively traded, was up 63 cents, or 1.2%, to
$52.52 a barrel. Brent, the global benchmark, gained 63 cents, or
1.2%, to $54.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
The IEA said crude production from OPEC fell 320,000 barrels a
day from record rates, to 33.09 million barrels a day in December,
after lower Saudi output and disruptions in Nigeria curbed supply.
The cartel itself said its output fell by 221,000 barrels a day
last month. Output from OPEC was likely to fall more steeply in
January than the 320,000 barrels a day cut in December, IEA
added.
"Early indications suggest a deeper OPEC reduction may be under
way for January, as Saudi Arabia and its neighbors enforce supply
cuts," the IEA said.
OPEC and several non-OPEC countries agreed to reduce oil output
by around 1.8 million barrels per day starting this month.
Oil prices have risen by around 12% since the deal was
announced, on expectations it will help ease a glut that has halved
prices from above $100 a barrel and left the amount of oil sitting
in storage around record highs.
But oil storage levels in the industrialized nations of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell in
November. Both crude and oil products declined, a fourth
consecutive monthly decrease. Taking into account preliminary data
for December, OECD stocks are 82 million barrels below July's
historical peak, even if for now they remain above the symbolic 3
billion level.
"Got your attention yet? The market is undersupplied BEFORE the
OPEC cuts take effect," analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt &
Co. said about the report in their morning note to clients
Thursday. "Bullish, really bullish."
The report did, however, show U.S. oil production was expected
to increase by 320,000 barrels a day to average 12.8 million
barrels a day, similar to the increase forecast by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration earlier this month.
Long-planned projects coming on stream in Brazil and Canada will
also bring a combined increase of 415,000 barrels a day, IEA said.
That is likely to keep non-OPEC production growing by 380,000
barrels a day despite cuts pledged by Russia and other exporters
working in collaboration with OPEC.
"We continue to think that some residual surplus is likely,
although the overall pattern with the emergence of a second half
deficit is a reasonable assumption in our view," Tim Evans, a Citi
Futures analyst said in a note.
Traders are also waiting U.S. oil storage and production data
for the week ended Jan. 13, set for release later Thursday by the
EIA.
Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect
crude oil stockpiles to increase by 100,000 barrels on average for
that week.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group,
predicts a decline of 5 million barrels in crude supplies, a
9.8-million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 1.2-million-barrel
increase in distillate inventories.
Gasoline futures recently gained 0.2% to $1.5521 a gallon and
diesel futures gained 1.2% to $1.6288 a gallon.
.
Benoit Faucon,
Sarah McFarlane
and Jenny W. Hsu contributed to this article.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 19, 2017 11:29 ET (16:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.