META Meta Platforms Inc

By Steven Perlberg and Mike Shields 

1) Can Snapchat please Wall Street?

As Snap Inc. preps for its much-anticipated IPO, it's already setting itself up for a bold and potentially dangerous benchmark: becoming the next Facebook. As The Wall Street Journal reports, Snap executives plan to talk up the 150 million daily active users for the Snapchat app when they hit the road to pitch investors on what they hope will be a $20 billion to $25 billion IPO valuation. It's a dazzling user number, except when compared with Facebook's 1.18 billion daily active users. Of course, that kind of engagement didn't happen overnight for Facebook. But there was a clear moment when Facebook went from college kid social network to the social network everyone from junior to mom to grandma is using. Will Snapchat have such a demographic crossover moment that will help accelerate its growth?

2) What will the AppNexus IPO tell us about the state of ad tech?

The WPP-backed ad tech firm, which operates as something of a jack-of-all-trades for web publishers and advertisers, is expected to go public during the second quarter of 2017 at a possible valuation of up to $2 billion. Will its financials reveal -- like other ad tech IPOs -- a company that is struggling to become profitable or that relies as much on humans as it does on powerful software? Or will it give hope to those in the ad world that see AppNexus as a potential independent counter to Google and Facebook's power? If so, what will that mean for the rest of the ad tech landscape?

3) Will the Verizon/AOL/ Yahoo mashup happen, or even matter?

Even if there are no more revelations of hacking at Yahoo, there are still questions about whether Verizon Communications will go through with its plans to acquire Yahoo. Verizon could also ask for either a reduced price or more legal protections to cope with the liability from the data breaches. If this messy deal does close, there is still uncertainty about Verizon's ability to stitch Yahoo's ad tech and vast pools of data together with Verizon's and AOL's own data and technology platforms. Will Verizon really be able to build a digital ad targeting powerhouse that becomes a must-buy for advertisers (let alone even begins to make Google and Facebook the least bit nervous)?

4) What is Vice's next move?

At an industry event earlier this month, Vice CEO Shane Smith said that his media company was "talking to some banks" and getting ready to present the case for an IPO at a January board meeting. "Next year is going to be a banner year and now is the time to do it," he said, according to Variety. There are other possibilities for Vice, which this year launched its own cable channel, Viceland. Disney owns an 18% equity stake in the digital media company, and their close ties have fueled speculation that the home of Mickey Mouse will make an outright acquisition. Executives at both Vice and Disney have done little to play down that notion, instead explaining the logic of such a combination.

5) What happens to Time Inc.?

There are no easy answers for legacy, print-centric media companies, even as they strive to diversify their revenue streams. The embattled Time Inc.--given its exposed state as a stand-alone, public magazine company -- has become the poster child for the pain of digital disruption. Since print advertising is unlikely to make a huge comeback in 2017, will Time Inc. find a white knight buyer next year? Chief Executive Rich Battista said he expects more interest from third parties. Could Meredith Corp. resurface as a merger candidate?

6) Will there be some digital media marriages?

Comcast's NBCUniversal has twice invested in BuzzFeed and has also put money into Vox Media. Time Warner's Turner has pumped cash into Refinery29 and Mashable. Is 2017 the year that one of these partnerships turns into a full-on acquisition? And if that happens, what does it mean for the rest of the sector? Will some midsize web publishers be left at the altar and suffer from not having big media ties? Or, will the smaller independent publishers have the flexibility needed to navigate the digital disruption to come?

7) When does Facebook ratchet up video monetization?

This was the year that Facebook pumped resources into making live video a key feature of the ubiquitous social platform -- including a TV ad campaign and payments to big media companies. Meanwhile, most video consumption on Facebook consists of on-demand clips that pop into people's news feeds. Even as many publishers rack up big video numbers on Facebook via such clips (that is, assuming Facebook's numbers are to be trusted, following the company's string of metrics miscalculations), there is no way for them to make money from this growth other than from custom branded content. (Unlike YouTube, Facebook doesn't do pre-roll ads.) Surely some of these media companies (and their venture capital backers) are growing impatient. They are putting a lot of faith in Facebook to figure out a way to weave ads in between professionally produced video clips in a way that is palatable for consumers. Plus, many are also watching to see what comes of Facebook's attempt to fight back against fake news.

8) What happens to the long tail of cable?

With more consumers cutting the cord or downgrading to skinnier pay-TV packages, pressure is mounting on cable's so-called "long tail" -- the obscure, niche channels that appear on the far reaches of the dial. Many big media companies like NBCUniversal, Viacom, Discovery and A+E Networks own such networks, which do bring in both affiliate and advertising revenue. But some TV industry observers think 2017 will be the year when media companies start to shed some of these channels, which are expensive to operate and have been some of the hardest hit by cable subscriber losses.

9) What's the future of Viacom?

The power struggle for control of Viacom has all but ended, with Viacom's former CEO Philippe Dauman ousted earlier this year and Shari Redstone ascending to a more powerful role within her father's media empire. But Viacom's path is far from clear, particularly after National Amusements -- Sumner Redstone's holding company that owns roughly 80% voting stakes in CBS and Viacom -- backed away from its call to explore a reunion of the two companies. Now Bob Bakish, Viacom's new CEO, will be tasked with navigating an unpredictable media landscape as a stand-alone company. For starters, he'll need to restore the creative culture at networks like MTV and Comedy Central and beef up Viacom's digital and streaming chops.

10) What does Donald Trump's relationship with the media look like in 2017?

The press is gearing up for a White House that will likely have a very different communications strategy than prior administrations. Mr. Trump clashed with the press throughout the campaign ( and afterward), calling out media outlets like the New York Times, CNN and Vanity Fair at rallies and in late-night and early-morning tweets. Indeed, Mr. Trump's reliance on his Twitter feed -- as opposed to aides and traditional news coconferences--to communicate also has the mainstream media wondering what kind of access his administration might provide when he takes office. Incoming White House press secretary Sean Spicer said that beyond owing the media a news conference, "business as usual is over," Politico reported.

11) Do any new streaming services break out?

Cord-cutting so far has been more hyperbole than massive reality. But will the introduction of new streaming video services make a difference in 2017? AT&T recently introduced its new DirecTV Now service, which for a limited time is offering more than 100 channels for $35 a month. But the new offering has been plagued by some service hiccups. Meanwhile, it's hard to say how much other services like Dish Network's Sling TV or Sony's PlayStation Vue have distinguished themselves as early leaders in the race to entice cord-cutters. More high-profile offerings are set to hit the market in 2017, including Hulu's cable-style bundle of live channels and potentially a skinny bundle of live TV channels from Google. Will a winning cable alternative emerge?

Write to Steven Perlberg at steven.perlberg@wsj.com and Mike Shields at mike.shields@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 30, 2016 06:14 ET (11:14 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.