Mexican Inflation Gathered Speed in November
December 08 2016 - 10:32AM
Dow Jones News
By Anthony Harrup
MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's inflation accelerated in November to its
fastest pace in two years, affected by higher food prices and the
impact of a weaker currency on the cost of imported goods.
The consumer price index rose 0.78% last month, pushing the
annual inflation rate up to 3.31% from 3.06% at the end of October,
the National Statistics Institute said Thursday.
Core CPI -- which excludes energy and fresh fruit and vegetables
-- rose 0.22% in November and was up 3.29% in the preceding 12
months.
The November increases were below the median estimates of 0.82%
and 0.3%, respectively in a Wall Street Journal survey of
economists.
Electricity rates contributed the most to November's inflation
as summertime subsidies ended in northern cities, although overall
energy costs have risen just 1.77% in the past year. Food prices,
however, were up more than 5% from November 2015, as were health
costs.
The depreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar,
which raises the price of imported goods, has also affected
inflation. Core goods prices, those most affected by the currency,
were up an annual 3.91% in November.
The inflation risk from the weaker peso prompted the Bank of
Mexico to raise interest rates four times this year, bringing the
overnight lending rate target to 5.25% from 3.25% at the end of
2015.
"The sharp peso depreciation during the last 12 months and very
accommodative domestic financial conditions added upside risk to
the inflation outlook in spite of the loss of growth momentum,"
Goldman Sachs Latin America economist Alberto Ramos said in a note.
"This backdrop fully justifies the central bank decision to
continue to push rates higher."
All 24 banks polled this week by Citibanamex expect the central
bank to raise the rate again next week following the monetary
policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is also widely
expected to increase borrowing costs. Expectations are divided
between a quarter-point and half-point increase in Mexico.
Prospects of a continued peso impact on prices, and expectations
of higher gasoline prices next year have led economists to raise
their average inflation forecasts for 2017 to around 4% -- the top
of the central bank's 2%-4% comfort zone -- with many expecting it
will go higher than that.
The Bank of Mexico expects inflation to be above 3% all next
year, while holding within the target range.
Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 08, 2016 10:17 ET (15:17 GMT)
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