TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales,
including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,366,900 units in November,
up 3.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for two more
selling days this year than in November 2015, sales may decline 4.7
percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for
total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.66 million units for
the month, down from an 18.25 million-unit SAAR a year ago.
Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light
trucks should decline 3.8 percent to 1,189,914 adjusted for selling
days.
“The early launch of Black Friday sales events is helping offset
declines in fleet sales this month, as the retail sales environment
remains strong for new car sales,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s chief
industry analyst. “Incentives are also down slightly as automakers
begin to address supply side imbalances with planned reductions in
vehicle production.”
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,475
per vehicle in November, up 13 percent from a year ago, and down
1.4 percent from October 2016.
“With only one month of sales to go until the end of the year,
it looks like we will not break the annual record for auto sales
set in 2015, but from a historical context, 2016 will go down as a
blockbuster year in terms of new car sales and the overall health
of the automotive industry,” said Lyman.
General Motors continues to make gains in market share even as
they continue to pull back on sales to the fleet channel.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is at 93.8
this month compared to 87.2 in October which further underscores
the strength of a healthy US economy; the October unemployment rate
came in at an eight year low of 4.9 percent in combination with a
favorable average gas price of $2.13 recorded for this current
week.
Other key findings for November:
- Registration mix is expected to be 87.1
percent retail sales and 12.9 percent fleet versus 86.3 percent
retail and 13.7 percent fleet last November.
- Total used auto sales, including
franchise and independent dealerships and private-party
transactions, may reach 2,857,365 down 6.1 percent from November
2015.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer
November2016 Forecast
November 2015
% Change vs.November 2015
YoY %Change(Daily SellingRate)
BMW 36,000 36,521 -1.4%
-9.3% Daimler 37,000
33,475 10.5% 1.7% FCA
162,800 177,057 -8.1%
-15.4% Ford 187,500 186,889
0.3% -7.7% GM 255,000
229,296 11.2% 2.3% Honda
124,000 115,441 7.4%
-1.2% Hyundai 62,200 60,007
3.7% -4.6% Kia 50,000
45,553 9.8% 1.0% Nissan
105,000 107,083 -1.9%
-9.8% Subaru 52,000
46,070 12.9% 3.8% Toyota
197,000 189,517 3.9%
-4.4% Volkswagen Group 47,100 45,284
4.0% -4.3% Industry
1,366,900 1,319,299 3.6%
-4.7%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer
November 2016 Forecast
November 2015 October 2016 BMW
2.6% 2.8% 2.0% Daimler
2.7% 2.5% 2.3% FCA
11.9% 13.4% 13.0% Ford
13.7% 14.2% 13.7% GM
18.7% 17.4% 18.8% Honda
9.1% 8.8% 9.2% Hyundai
4.6% 4.5% 4.5% Kia 3.7%
3.5% 3.6% Nissan 7.7%
8.1% 8.3% Subaru 3.8%
3.5% 3.9% Toyota 14.4%
14.4% 13.6% Volkswagen Group
3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer
November 2016Forecast
November 2015
YoY %Change
YoY %Change(Daily SellingRate)
BMW 34,633 34,354 0.8%
-7.3% Daimler 34,819
31,175 11.7% 2.8% FCA
137,800 139,767 -1.4%
-9.3% Ford 145,950 145,399
0.4% -7.7% GM 210,000
189,533 10.8% 1.9% Honda
122,800 114,183 7.5%
-1.1% Hyundai 43,200 40,961
5.5% -3.0% Kia 43,000
39,950 7.6% -1.0% Nissan
90,500 95,686 -5.4%
-13.0% Subaru 50,667
44,696 13.4% 4.3% Toyota
183,083 176,226 3.9%
-4.4% Volkswagen Group 44,743 41,799
7.0% -1.5% Industry
1,189,914 1,138,055 4.6%
-3.8%
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer
Incentive per UnitNovember
2016Forecast
Incentive per Unit% Change
vs.November 2015
Incentive per Unit% Change
vs.October 2016
Total SpendingNovember
2016Forecast
BMW $6,279 25.3% -3.0%
$225,591,077 Daimler $4,660
-4.3% -2.3% $172,432,476 FCA
$4,154 17.9% -0.7%
$672,051,475 Ford $3,982 23.0%
-1.9% $746,576,551 GM
$4,305 12.7% -3.4%
$1,097,765,167 Honda $1,936 6.0%
1.9% $240,095,178 Hyundai $2,468
13.0% 0.0% $153,489,550
Kia $3,164 5.8% 1.0%
$158,187,044 Nissan $4,209
12.4% -0.6% $441,952,967 Subaru
$1,145 99.5% 4.4%
$59,543,508 Toyota $2,420 2.7%
-0.4% $476,674,493 Volkswagen Group
$3,751 6.2% -2.7%
$175,369,595 Industry $3,475
13.0% -1.4% $4,732,677,325
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace
that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other
people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with
TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior
purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its
nationwide network of more than 12,000 Certified Dealers also
powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership
and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express,
AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage
with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar
is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San
Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to
www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email:
pressinquiries@truecar.com
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