By Mark DeCambre and Victor Reklaitis, MarketWatch
Yellen sees the case for a rate increase strengthening
U.S. stocks stepped firmly higher Friday as Federal Reserve
Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the case for an increase of benchmark
interest rates is gaining traction.
However, the central-bank chief's lack of a specific timetable
and her optimism over the U.S. economy in her comments during a
speech at an economics retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-yellen-says-case-for-another-interest-rate-hike-has-strenghtened-2016-08-26).,
appeared to provide support to investors, who have enjoyed a
protracted period of ultraloose monetary policy.
"In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market
and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the
case for an increase in the federal-funds rate has strengthened in
recent months," Yellen said in a speech prepared for delivery to
the Jackson Hole summit.
Frank.Cappelleri, sales trader and market strategist at
Instinet, said investors focused on Yellen's positive remarks about
the labor market and other segments of the economy.
"The theme from Ms. Yellen's remarks seems to confirm what the
market has been telling us the last few months--economic conditions
have improved," he said.
Wall Street's reaction may suggest that investors are becoming
inured to the idea of higher rates.
"The last two solid jobs numbers were strong, but importantly,
the [S&P 500's] reaction to those numbers were strong, too.
That suggests the market could be warming to the idea of higher
rates," Cappelleri said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 90 points, or 0.5%, to
18,538, propelled into positive territory on the back of a climb in
shares of Intel Corp. (INTC) and Caterpillar Inc.(CAT).
The S&P 500 index advanced 10 points, or 0.5%, at 2,183. All
10 of the large-cap's sectors were firmly in the green, led by
energy and materials.
"This is the most dovish-hawkish speech we could have possibly
have expected," Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife, told
CNBC during an interview, noting that Yellen reiterated the Fed's
dependence on coming economic reports.
"Yellen never paints herself into a corner when she doesn't need
to" she said.
The climb for stocks put the three main indexes on track to
erase weekly losses, with the S&P 500 on pace to post a modest
0.1% weekly climb, while the Dow is on track to end where it
started the week. The Nasdaq Composite's recent gains makes a
nine-week win streak a possibility for the tech-laden
benchmark.
Corners of the market seemed skeptical that a rate increase was
in the offing.
A 1.3% jump in the price of gold futures and yields for
benchmark U.S. Treasury notes holding at 1.55%, after briefly
rising, suggest that traders there are betting that the Fed will
maintain a lower-for-longer stance. And the dollar, which had
briefly popped higher, was most recently off flat at 94.74, as
measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index . The dollar usually climbs
amid prospects that the Fed could lift rates, as investors
anticipate higher returns on dollar-based deposits.
Wall Street sees the chance of rate increase at the Fed's Sept.
20-21 meeting is 18%, down from 21% on Thursday, according to the
CME Group's FedWatch too
(http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html)l.
The market sees the likelihood of a rate increase in December at
43% from 41% the day prior.
Ahead of the speech, a second estimate of second-quarter gross
domestic product underscored that the U.S. economy is still
muddling along, growing at a lackluster 1.1% pace--slower than
preliminary reading of 1.2%
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/second-quarter-gdp-rises-just-12-well-below-forecast-2016-07-29)
as corporate profits fell.
Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Friday on
CNBC echoed the recent hawkish sentiments of other Fed members,
saying "it makes sense" to start moving interest rates higher.
Read more:Yellen to say 'ready' for another rate increase in
Jackson Hole
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yellen-to-say-ready-for-another-rate-hike-in-jackson-hole-2016-08-19)
And see:Fed might raise interest rates despite market objections
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-going-out-to-jackson-hole-to-get-divorce-from-markets-2016-08-23)
On Thursday, the S&P 500 index closed 0.1% lower, while the
Dow shed 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index was down 5.49 points,
or 0.1%, to 5,212.20, as investors seemed reluctant to make big
bets
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-set-for-losses-as-yellen-speech-draws-closer-2016-08-25)
on the eve of the Fed chairwoman's speech. The S&P is down 0.5%
for the week, as of Thursday's close, and the Dow is 0.6% lower.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq is on track to snap an eight week win streak,
down 0.5% on the week.
Individual movers: Shares in Herbalife Ltd.(HLF) tumbled 7%
following news that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has recently
discussed selling his stake
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/carl-icahn-considered-selling-herbalife-stake-to-arch-nemesis-bill-ackman-2016-08-26)
in the nutritional-products company to a group including
Herbalife's arch-nemesis Bill Ackman.
Anheuser-Busch InBev NV(ABI.BT)(ABI.BT) warned Friday its beer
megamerger with SABMiller PLC(SAB.JO) could lead to thousands of
job losses
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ab-inbev-warns-3-to-be-laid-off-in-merger-2016-08-26)
in the coming years.
Software company
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/splunk-beats-expectations-and-raises-forecast-but-stock-still-slumps-2016-08-25)Splunk
Inc.(SPLK), beauty products seller
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ulta-shares-weaken-as-outlook-offsets-earnings-beat-2016-08-25)Ulta
Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc.(ULTA) and videogame retailer
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gamestop-shares-slide-after-revenue-falls-short-of-street-view-2016-08-25)GameStop
Corp.(GME) all look on track for down days after each company's
stock suffered an earnings-driven drop late Thursday.
Other markets: Oil futures (SPLK) pivoted higher in early Friday
trade, European stocks also tilted up after oil turned positive
after trading lower for much of the morning, while Asia closed
mixed.
Other economic reports: Meanwhile, the trade gap narrowed
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-gap-narrows-in-july-advance-report-shows-2016-08-26)to
a seasonally adjusted $59.3 billion in July from $64.5 billion in
June, the Commerce Department said Friday.
And a The University of Michigan's final August reading of
consumer sentiment
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-dips-as-americans-divide-on-election-impact-on-economy-2016-08-26)slipped
to 89.8 from 90.0 in July. The index is 2.3% lower than a year ago.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a reading of
91.0.
Check out:
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 26, 2016 10:58 ET (14:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.