Gulf Stock Markets Trade Lower Following 'Brexit' Vote
June 26 2016 - 5:19AM
Dow Jones News
By Nikhil Lohade
DUBAI--Stock markets in Saudi Arabia and its oil-exporting
Persian Gulf neighbors traded sharply lower Sunday, tracking a
global market selloff triggered by the United Kingdom's decision to
leave the European Union.
Saudi Arabia's stock market, the region's biggest, fell 2.5% to
6386.66 in early trade, while Dubai's benchmark DFM Index was down
2.8% at 3274.87. Abu Dhabi's general stocks index slipped 2% to
4412.12 and Qatar's QE Index shed 1.7% to 9796.31.
Investors surprised by the result of the referendum sent global
stocks tumbling on Friday and the British pound fell to a 30-year
low amid uncertainty over the future of Europe. Oil prices posted
their biggest one-day percentage decline since February.
Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council bloc--which includes
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and
Oman--were closed Friday and Saturday for the weekend.
"Markets in the Middle East and North Africa will take guidance
[on Sunday] from Friday's market slump," Simon Kitchen, a MENA
strategist at Cairo-based EFG Hermes said, noting the oil price
correlation--still at high levels--will weigh on Saudi stocks.
"However, while first day effects may be limited, we expect more
volatility for the remainder of 2016 as post-Brexit pains combine
with political uncertainty in Europe and the U.S.," Mr. Kitchen
said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.4% on Friday, the
largest decline for the index since August. The Stoxx Europe 600
index shed 7%--its steepest drop since 2008, while Japan's Nikkei
Stock Average fell 7.9%.
Several major central banks globally moved to calm the markets,
promising to maintain stable prices and safeguard the stability of
the financial system.
Saudi Arabia's central bank on Saturday said it revised its
investment policy for pound- and euro-denominated assets, making
some adjustments in a precautionary stance against the impact on
financial markets.
The U.A.E.'s central bank said via a statement posted by the
country's state-controlled news agency that it will continue to
monitor the unfolding economic implications of the vote, and in
particular developments that could impact the local economy. It
added that due to limited interconnectedness between U.A.E. and
U.K. financial systems, there are few channels through which Brexit
uncertainty could affect the financial institutions here.
For the Gulf region, the biggest concern remains oil. A sharp
fall in the price of crude since mid 2014 has weighed on the
markets here as investors worry about the petrodollar-dependent
economies. A recent recovery in oil prices, along with steps taken
by some local governments such as Saudi Arabia to reshape their
economies, boosted sentiment.
But Brent--the global benchmark-- fell nearly 5% on Friday to
settle at $48.41 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
Still, some analysts expect the longer-term impact from the
so-called Brexit on the Gulf markets to be limited.
Capital Economics says little will change in the short term as
the U.K. will remain a member of the EU for at least two years,
while the impact on economic growth in Europe and the U.K. is
expected to be significantly less than feared by some. "As a
result, demand for oil should continue to grow. What's more, any
negative effects could well be offset by looser monetary policy,"
analysts at the London-based consulting firm said in a note to
clients.
Most Gulf countries peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, in
which oil, their biggest revenue earner, is priced. This largely
insulates the regional economies from global currency gyrations.
And their stock markets are dominated by retail investors and local
institutions that usually help limit the impact from international
market volatility.
Neuberger Berman said the U.K. vote would probably exert only a
marginal effect on global economic fundamentals, which remain
stable but weak. Urging investors to focus on the fundamentals, its
investment managers said, "The market reaction may provide
opportunities to add to some positions in riskier assets once the
worst of the initial volatility has passed."
Write to Nikhil Lohade at Nikhil.Lohade@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2016 05:04 ET (09:04 GMT)
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