By Ellie Ismailidou and Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch

Retail in the spotlight after weekend of holiday shopping

Stock futures inched higher ahead of the opening bell on Monday, as investors returning from the Thanksgiving break prepared for a busy week of central-bank watching.

The week could be volatile for markets, with a policy meeting at the European Central Bank and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on the docket. Friday brings the last batch of U.S. jobs numbers before the Fed's December policy meeting and a crucial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Against that backdrop, the mood was cautious on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 36 points or 0.2% to 17,837 and those for the S&P 500 up 4 points or 0.2% to 2,094. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 16 points or 0.3% to 4,699.

The major indexes were left mostly flat for the holiday-shortened week. For November, the Nasdaq Composite is looking at a gain of around 1.5%, while the Dow industrials and S&P 500 index are less buoyant, set to add around 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

Reason to rally? The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November will be released at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by pending-home sales for October at 10 a.m. Eastern. This week, a steady trickle of data builds to the November nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Barring a surprise on the downside in the upcoming data releases, investors are largely expecting that the Fed will hike rates in December. The market-implied probability of a December rate increase was 78% Monday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html), which tracks Fed-funds futures prices.

"The question should now shift however to how the economic data stacks up in moving towards a second hike in early 2016," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, in a note.

This is particularly important for the U.S. dollar, Boockvar added, "in the context of the large bullishness of it based predominantly on the fact that the Fed's monetary policy is diverging from everyone else."

Investors will also be watching closely a speech by the Fed's Yellen on Wednesday. On Thursday, they'll look to see whether ECB President Mario Draghi delivers further easing as expected, and whether any action taken will be enough to keep markets happy.

The market is in position to rally and could reach record highs by the end of the year, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial. He added that a potential Fed hike has largely been factored in.

"I still think we'll see new highs, between 2,175 and 2,200 by year-end [on the S&P 500], in spite of a possible change in monetary policy and in spite of a strong dollar," he said. "The fact that the ECB is likely to increase stimulus is a plus for global equities."

Stocks to watch: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is among the retailers in the spotlight as investors get ready to assess the holiday weekend of sales.

Traders may be looking to the retail sector to add some end-of-month sparkle, though there are concerns about slower-than-expected Black Friday sales in stores. Some are worried that if early returns on Cyber Monday sales are also weak, then that could dampen what appetite is out there for retail stocks (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/holiday-sales-wage-data-likely-to-drive-stocks-this-week-2015-11-29). A National Retail Federation survey on Sunday found that more people shopped online than in stores during the holiday weekend (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/online-shopping-tops-stores-on-black-friday-weekend-2015-11-29-19103331).

Other markets:Oil prices (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-pause-ahead-of-central-bank-opec-meetings-2015-11-30) turned higher Monday ahead of another major event this week, the OPEC meeting on Friday. Pressure is building on Saudi Arabia to cut oil output, but many say the kingdom is unlikely to change its approach (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pressure-builds-on-saudi-arabia-before-fridays-opec-meeting-2015-11-30).

Gold prices edged higher Monday morning but were en route for the biggest monthly loss in over two years (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-dips-set-for-biggest-monthly-loss-in-more-than-2-years-2015-11-30). The dollar (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-pinned-down-as-ecb-and-us-payrolls-line-up-this-week-2015-11-30), meanwhile, was eyeing the best month since January, boosted by rising rate-hike expectations.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-climb-ahead-of-key-policy-data-week-2015-11-30) was set to rise 2.5% for November. In Asia (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-november-stock-gains-nearly-wiped-out-by-broker-probe-2015-11-30), the Shanghai Composite managed a 1.9% gain for November, but much of the month's gains were wiped out by an investigation into China's biggest brokerage houses. The index is up just 16% from its Aug. 26 bottom.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 30, 2015 09:02 ET (14:02 GMT)