TD Ameritrade's Investor Movement Index: IMX Falls to a Two-Year Low
February 09 2015 - 12:30PM
Business Wire
Investors exercise less exposure to equity
markets and at the same time are net buyers in the new year
TD Ameritrade, Inc. (“TD Ameritrade”), a broker-dealer
subsidiary of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NYSE: AMTD), is
today releasing the Investor Movement Index® reading for January
2015. The Investor Movement Index, or the IMXsm, is a proprietary,
behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade that aggregates Main
Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors
are actually doing and how they are positioned in the markets.
The January 2015 Investor Movement Index for the four weeks
ending January 30, 2015, reveals:
- Reading: 4.85 (compared to 5.12 in
December)
- Trend direction: Negative
- Trend length: 1 month
- Score relative to historic ranges:
Middle
The IMX fell to a two-year low of 4.85, and TD Ameritrade
clients have positioned their portfolios to have less exposure to
equity markets than in previous periods.
U.S. equity markets headed into January at record levels but,
similar to last January, equities started the year by declining
approximately 5% for the month. Global economic concerns seemed to
ignite a flight to safety trading, as a rally in U.S. Treasuries
eventually drove the yield on the 10-year note below 1.7%, its
lowest level since May 2012, and precious metals rallied to
multi-month highs. Oil prices and oil-related companies remained
under pressure throughout January.
The decline in the IMX indicates that clients have a more
cautious portfolio posture. An IMX reading of 4.85 puts the index
in the middle of its historical range. Although the IMX declined,
that doesn’t necessarily mean that clients were net sellers;
clients were actually net buyers in January. The IMX measures
overall equity market exposure. This month’s decline was driven by
the way clients have positioned their core portfolio holdings over
multiple periods and how volatile those core holdings were relative
to recent equity market movements. The end result of client
portfolio allocations was less leverage to equity markets during
the recent rise in volatility, and a lower IMX reading.
“After a volatile end to 2014, our clients started 2015 on a
measured note as they looked to use increased volatility to their
advantage,” said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist, TD Ameritrade. “As
Energy lead the news, we saw some increased desire for exposure in
that space.”
TD Ameritrade clients continued to be net buyers of oil
producers. BP PLC (BP), Chevron Corporation (CVX), and
ConocoPhillips (COP) all saw continued downward pressure on their
stock prices, eventually finding some support in the middle of the
month, and were net buys. Net buying also occurred in familiar
names that pay dividends, including Disney (DIS), AT&T (T), and
General Electric (GE).
The January IMX period saw net selling in retailers JC Penney
(JCP) and Rite Aid (RAD), who both reported favorable sales
figures. Both companies saw their stock prices plunge last fall,
but prices have risen since then. Names making headlines with
analyst upgrades in January, like Whole Foods Market (WFM) and
Lululemon (LULU), were also popular sells. Sirius XM (SIRI) and
Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), which are both lower-priced securities that
saw multi-month lows in October, were net buys as they returned to
price levels seen before their October declines.
The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary
formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client
base of 6 million funded accounts that includes all accounts that
completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of
this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate
individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the
monthly IMX.
For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including
historical IMX data going back to December 2010, to view the full
report from January 2015, or to sign up for future IMX news alerts,
please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade
clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the
thinkorswim or TD Ameritrade Mobile Trader platforms.
Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not
constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or
hold.
Past performance of a security, strategy or index is no
guarantee of future results or investment success.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment
decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider
your individual financial position and goals before making an
independent investment decision.
The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as
an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or
financial performance for TD Ameritrade.
For the latest TD Ameritrade news and information, follow the
Company on Twitter, @TDAmeritradePR.
Source: TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
About TD Ameritrade Holding CorporationMillions of
investors and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs)
have turned to TD Ameritrade’s (NYSE:AMTD) technology, people and
education to help make investing and trading easier to understand
and do. Online or over the phone. In a branch or with an
independent RIA. First-timer or sophisticated trader. Our clients
want to take control, and we help them decide how — bringing Wall
Street to Main Street for more than 39 years. An official sponsor
of the 2014 and 2016 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Teams, TD
Ameritrade has time and again been recognized as a leader in
investment services. Please visit TD Ameritrade’s newsroom or
www.amtd.com for more information.
Brokerage services provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member
FINRA (www.FINRA.org)/SIPC (www.SIPC.org)/NFA
(www.nfa.futures.org)
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TD Ameritrade Holding CorporationFor Media:Beth Evegan,
201-369-5930Communications & Public
Affairsbeth.evegan@tdameritrade.com@TDAmeritradePRorFor
Investors:Jeff Goeser, 402-597-8464Investor Relations &
Financejeffrey.goeser@tdameritrade.com
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