Global Economy Growth Rate of 3 Percent or Slightly Higher Expected in 2015
December 11 2014 - 12:30PM
Business Wire
IHS Top-10 predictions foresee momentum in global economy to
improve during 2015 on positive fundamentals
The global economy is expected to expand at a rate of 3.0
percent or slightly higher in 2015 after three years of global
growth stuck in the 2.5 percent range, according to a forecast from
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS (NYSE:IHS), the global
leader in critical information and insight.
Solid and improving growth in the United States and a slight
pickup in the pace of Eurozone economic activity contribute to the
moderately upbeat assessment, Behravesh said. Other contributors,
he said, are much lower oil prices and more monetary stimulus—in
particular, from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank
(ECB), and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), “which will not only
support growth, but could also provide the basis for some upside
surprises.
“Unfortunately, many of the downside risks that have plagued the
global economy since the end of the Great Recession remain in
place, including high public- and private-sector debt levels,
corporate risk aversion, and daunting geopolitical risks,” he
added.
The global growth outlook for 2015 is included in Behravesh’s
annual Top-10 Economic Predictions, which were released today.
The U.S. economy will continue to outperform other developed
economies in 2015, the forecast said. U.S. growth will be solid, in
the 2.5–3.0 percent range, on the strength of domestic demand.
Strong jobs growth, improved household finances (the best since the
early 2000s), and low gasoline prices will result in consumer
spending growing at a rate of about 3 percent for the next two to
three years. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of
GDP.
The Eurozone recovery will proceed at a sluggish pace, with the
highlight of the region being robust UK growth. The Eurozone will
experience a very modest acceleration of growth of 1.4 percent,
even though significant problems, such as worrying labor markets,
still persist. However; the UK economy will post solid growth in
the 2.5 to 3.0 percent range in 2015.
Japanese growth will move back into positive territory in 2015
-although only to about 1 percent -on the supportive policy moves
by the Bank of Japan combined with lower oil prices and a weaker
yen.
Central banks will go their separate ways in 2015: The Fed, Bank
of England and Bank of Canada are expected to raise rates in
2015—in June, August, and October, respectively. In contrast, the
ECB, BoJ and PBoC are on track to either cut interest rates and/or
provide more liquidity via asset purchases and other means.
The other Top-10 predictions include:
- China’s growth rate will decelerate
more, but remain stronger than most at 6.5 percent in 2015.
- Most emerging economies will see
stronger growth in 2015 with India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Colombia, Peru, and Kenya doing particularly well. On
the other hand, Brazil will see disappointing growth in 2015 and
Russia’s economy will likely contract.
- Oil prices will stay low in 2015 and
commodity prices are likely to slide more—around 10 percent on
average.
- Deflationary worries persist in
developed economies; inflation will be a threat in emerging markets
that experienced sharp drops in exchange rates.
- The U.S. dollar will rise against most
currencies, while the euro and yen will fall.
- Downside risks will be balanced by some
upside risks. Hindrances to growth are easing in some countries,
notably the U.S. and the U.K.; easing fiscal drag and better credit
conditions will also help the growth prospects in the Eurozone and
Japan in 2015.
For 2014, IHS forecast that global growth would accelerate
slowly in 2014; weak first-quarter growth was followed by stronger
growth as 2014 progressed, as predicted. In all, 9 out of 10 IHS
predictions for the year were on the mark.
About IHS
(www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight
and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business
landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries
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high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and
confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a
publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005.
Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to
sustainable, profitable growth and employs more than 8,000 people
in 31 countries around the world.
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IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
IHS Inc.Kate Smith, +1
781-301-9311kate.smith@ihs.comorPress Team+1
303-305-8021press@ihs.com
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