VIENNA--The U.S. and other world powers said it will be
virtually impossible to reach a comprehensive deal to curb Iran's
nuclear activities by the Monday night deadline, and they would
favor extending the talks.
U.S. officials are arguing that preserving improved relations
with Tehran is preferable to a breakdown in more than a year of
direct negotiations and a potential escalation of tensions in an
already-fractious Middle East.
However, an extension looks headed for stiff resistance from
both Democratic and Republican U.S. lawmakers, who are questioning
what the White House believes it can achieve in a few additional
months of talks that they couldn't in a year.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry backed the idea of an
extension even without a core political document that would lay out
key terms of the accord--something that could have indicated a
final agreement was near.
"Our focus remains on taking steps forward toward an agreement.
But it is only natural that just over 24 hours from the deadline,
we are discussing a range of options...An extension is one of those
options," said a senior U.S. official.
"It should come as no surprise that we are also engaged in a
discussion of the options with the Iranians. This does not mean
that we are not continuing to discuss the broad range of difficult
issues and working to make progress on all the issues that need to
be part of a comprehensive agreement," the official added.
The aim of the comprehensive agreement is to constrain Tehran's
nuclear program in exchange for an easing of Western sanctions.
American officials have said in recent weeks that they believe
Tehran could quickly ramp up its production of nuclear fuel, and
potentially sabotage U.S. efforts to combat Islamic State militants
in Iraq and Syria, if the negotiating process ends.
The U.S. and its negotiating partners entered into an interim
agreement with Iran last year that suspended parts of its nuclear
program in return for an easing of some sanctions.
Independent experts tracking Iran's program, however, voiced
skepticism Sunday that additional talks would allow Iran and the
West to address their differences.
"I don't think it's going to get any easier to overcome the
obstacles if they couldn't be overcome in the last four months of
pretty intense negotiations," said Mark Kirkpatrick, a former State
Department official who closely tracks Iran's nuclear program for
London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.
He added, however: "Certainly an extension is far, far better
than a return to square one of more centrifuges and more sanctions.
As long as Iran's enrichment program remains capped it's to the
advantage of the U.S. and its allies."
Some senior Western diplomats involved in the Vienna talks also
doubted Tehran would be willing to significantly change its
position in the coming months.
"The [Iranian] negotiating team that is in Vienna--they are
open, nice people, who are doing the best they can," said the
official. "The problem is that you have some who I'm not sure have
the mandate to get to the place they need."
Mr. Kerry held four hours of negotiations on Sunday with his
Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, in a bid to push the diplomatic
process forward, according to U.S. officials. The foreign ministers
of the U.K., France, Russia, Germany, and Saudi Arabia also visited
Vienna, and China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, is expected to arrive
Monday morning.
Iran is formally negotiating with the five permanent members of
the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, a diplomatic bloc
called the P5+1.
The major stumbling blocks to an agreement remain the future
capacity of Iran to produce nuclear fuel and the pace at which
Western sanctions will be removed, according U.S., European and
Iranian officials.
Tehran has been seeking to produce nuclear fuel at an industrial
scale, using tens of thousands of fast-spinning centrifuge machines
to enrich uranium. The U.S. and its European partners have been
seeking to limit Tehran's capacity to a few thousand of the
machines.
Iran also wants a rapid waiving of U.S., European Union and U.N.
sanctions that have crippled its finances over the past five years.
The Obama administration is seeking a gradual repeal tied to Iran
implementing the commitments it makes to cap its nuclear work.
Also in question is the future of Iran's heavy water reactor in
the city of Arak, which is capable of producing plutonium usable in
weapons. The U.S. and U.N. are also pressing Tehran to cooperate
with U.N. inspectors investigating evidence Iran has conducted
secret studies on the development of atomic weapons, something the
country has repeatedly denied.
U.S., European and Iranian officials said they have made
progress over the past year in negotiations that have crisscrossed
the world from Oman to New York. But Obama administration officials
increasingly are questioning whether Iran's most powerful political
player, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has empowered Mr.
Zarif and other negotiators to make the necessary concessions for a
deal. Mr. Zarif has repeatedly said he's empowered to negotiate but
that Mr. Khamenei is the ultimate decision maker.
The diplomacy over the past year has coincided with the rise of
Islamic State militants who have captured large swaths of Iraq and
Syria since June.
U.S. officials have repeatedly said the Vienna negotiations are
being conducted independently of other regional security issues.
But they have also stated that Washington and Tehran have shared
interests in combating Islamic State and that tensions between the
two countries have been lowered significantly as a result of the
direct diplomacy.
Last month, Mr. Obama secretly wrote Mr. Khamenei and suggested
the U.S. and Iran could cooperate against Islamic State if the
nuclear issue is resolved, according to people briefed on the
letter.
Another senior U.S. official said late Sunday that if an
extension is needed the Obama administration would make the case
that talks have continued to make incremental progress and that
given time, the diplomacy could still bring a result.
With Iran's economic situation unlikely to improve, the diplomat
said extending the talks would allow the two sides to keep chipping
away at the differences and come to an agreement.
"The current process cannot continue forever," the official
said.
But "if we've made progress and we are closer than we have ever
been, think about the consequences if you walk away?"
Mr. Kerry held a dinner late Sunday with the foreign ministers
of the U.K., France and Germany, according to U.S. and European
officials, where the parameters of a possible extension were being
discussed.
The terms of an extension would be complicated, said these
officials, and would likely involve additional economic inducements
for Iran. Last year, the P5+1 suspended sanctions on the airline
and automotive sectors and released nearly $4.2 billion in Iranian
oil assets that were frozen in overseas accounts.
Republican lawmakers, who gained control of the Senate in
elections this month, have already stated they would oppose such
incentives and they would move to impose new sanctions on
Tehran.
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