By Jenny Gross
LONDON--Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party
suffered a significant loss to a small but growing anti-European
Union party, underscoring the challenge he faces at the coming
general election and the growing debate in the U.K. about its
relationship with Europe.
The U.K. Independence Party, which advocates Britain's departure
from the EU, secured a roughly 7% lead over the Conservatives to
secure its second seat in Britain's parliament. That came despite
Mr. Cameron throwing himself behind the campaign to retain the seat
in Rochester and Strood, 30 miles southeast of London, where
Conservative lawmaker Mark Reckless resigned from the party to
contest the seat under UKIP's banner.
The results are a blow to Mr. Cameron six months before what is
expected to be a close-fought general election. Both of UKIP's
recent wins were made by previously Conservative members of
parliament who had stepped down in recent months to contest their
seats as UKIP candidates.
While UKIP remains a small party, it poses an electoral threat
to the Conservatives because it could drain away votes in closely
contested constituencies.
The result underscores the increasingly fragmented nature of the
British political landscape, which has long been dominated by the
Conservatives and Labour. With many analysts expecting a hung
parliament in May's election, some say there could be a situation
where neither is able to form a coalition with just one other
party.
The Rochester result was also a disappointment for the two other
major parties, with both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who are
the junior partner to the Conservatives in the coalition
government, losing votes. The Lib Dems, traditionally the U.K.'s
third largest party, came in fifth behind the Green Party. Opinion
polls now show UKIP as the third most popular party, behind the
Conservatives and Labour.
Some analysts have linked the fragmentation, which is also being
seen by mainstream parties across Europe, to a growing sense of
frustration with the EU that has been fueled by the financial
crisis. How UKIP fares as the British economy continues to recover
will be an important indicator in whether the changes are temporary
or mark a fundamental shift in U.K. politics.
For its part, UKIP hailed the results as transformative. UKIP
leader Nigel Farage and Mr. Reckless said the victory in Rochester,
which the party had listed as 271 on its list of winnable seats,
provides a major boost to its prospects for the general election.
Mr. Reckless secured 16,867 votes, or a 42% share of ballots
cast.
While the win bolsters UKIP's presence in parliament, the party
could find it more difficult to retain the seat in the general
election as voters may be less likely to vote for a fringe party
that they know won't win a majority.
"I'm absolutely determined to win this seat back at the next
general election," Mr. Cameron said Friday, speaking to the British
Broadcasting Corporation. William Hague, the Conservative Leader of
the House of Commons, told the BBC that his party must "listen
carefully to what people are saying to us." Mr. Cameron and his
government colleagues have been trying to refocus the political
debate on the government's handling of the economy, which is
performing well compared with other Western countries and is
traditionally seen as a Conservative strong suit.
Still, the Rochester result is likely to increase pressure on
Mr. Cameron to toughen his stance on the EU and immigration, key
planks of UKIP's message. Mr. Cameron is expected to give an update
in the coming weeks on how he plans to curb immigration from within
the EU, which accounts for a significant portion of inflows into
the U.K. But other EU leaders have warned the British prime
minister against trying to block the free movement of people, which
they see as a fundamental principle of the 28-country bloc.
UKIP's growing popularity underscores the intensifying debate in
the U.K. about its membership of the EU. Mr. Cameron has promised
to renegotiate Britain's relationship with Brussels and--if he
wins--hold a referendum by 2017 on whether the U.K. should remain
in the EU. Mr. Cameron has said he wants the U.K. to remain within
a reformed EU.
"We believe that Brexit is unlikely but not impossible in the
next five years," said Citigroup Inc. in a an analyst report
published Friday. "The rise in support for UKIP has not gone
alongside a rise in support for EU exit. However, perhaps uniquely
among EU countries, the possibility of EU exit is not implausible
for the U.K.," Mr. Saunders wrote. "This risk is likely to weigh on
business confidence, especially among foreign-owned firms, in
coming years."
Write to Jenny Gross at jenny.gross@wsj.com
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